Each week, millions of fans follow the English Premier League, but the most informed supporters know there’s more to understanding the game than simply watching the results roll in. For those who follow the league closely—especially those placing bets—there are certain key statistics that provide a clearer view of form, momentum and likely outcomes. Here are the EPL stats that smart fans consistently check every week to stay ahead of the game.
Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA)
Premier League odds and week-by-week match predictions are most useful when supported by performance indicators such as Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA). These advanced metrics measure shot quality and defensive vulnerabilities, offering insight into how well a team is playing beneath the surface.
If a team wins 1–0 with an xG of only 0.3, it signals that their goal likely came from a low-probability chance—suggesting good fortune rather than control. On the other hand, a side consistently generating high xG values but failing to win may be underperforming in front of goal and due for a turnaround. Checking xG and xGA weekly helps fans judge whether form is sustainable or inflated by luck.
Shot Volume, Accuracy and Conversion
Understanding how often and how effectively a team shoots is central to evaluating attacking strength. Stats like shots per game, shots on target, and shot conversion rate offer a more nuanced view of a team’s ability to create and finish chances.
A team averaging high possession but few shots on target may be struggling to create meaningful chances. Conversely, a side with fewer attempts but a high conversion rate could be relying on clinical finishing that may not hold up long term. Smart fans track these figures to anticipate potential shifts in performance.
Possession and Passing in Key Areas
Weekly possession statistics help identify which teams control games, but possession alone doesn’t win matches. That’s why fans also monitor passing accuracy, particularly in the final third of the pitch. This reveals which sides are not only keeping the ball but also using it effectively to break down defences.
Teams with high passing efficiency in advanced zones are usually better at sustaining pressure and creating quality opportunities. These figures can also indicate tactical trends, such as whether a team is building play patiently or relying on swift counter-attacks.
Recent Form and Home vs Away Performance
Looking at the last five matches gives a snapshot of a team’s current momentum. A club that’s climbing the table may offer better value than one with a higher standing but inconsistent recent results. Smart fans also compare home and away records, as many teams perform significantly better on their own turf or struggle when travelling.
Form trends—especially when aligned with fixture difficulty—can be strong indicators of future outcomes, helping fans adjust expectations accordingly.
Discipline and Suspension Risk
Disciplinary records, including yellow and red cards, impact both player availability and overall team dynamics. A side with frequent bookings may suffer from suspensions that weaken the squad, especially in congested fixture periods. Additionally, high foul counts can indicate poor defensive structure or tactical fouling, which may lead to penalties and dangerous free kicks.
Savvy followers check weekly disciplinary stats to anticipate disruptions to a team’s normal line-up or tactical approach.
Set-Piece Threat and Vulnerability
Set pieces account for a large portion of goals in the EPL. Fans tracking weekly stats look at both goals scored from corners and free kicks, and goals conceded from set pieces. A team strong in this area can often compensate for a lack of open play dominance, while those consistently conceding from dead balls may have structural weaknesses.
These patterns are often overlooked but can prove decisive in close matches—especially when betting markets haven’t yet priced them in.
Turning Stats into Smarter Decisions Every Matchweek
By checking these key statistics each week, EPL fans can go beyond surface-level narratives and base their opinions—and betting decisions—on real indicators of team performance. Whether it’s judging form, anticipating line-up changes, or spotting tactical trends, staying data-informed is what sets the smartest fans apart.
